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Published picks & full record

The Published card is the curated public track (ROI first). Everything below it is the full graded archive — bulk tracked props, not the brand picks. After each game we pull the box score and grade wins, losses, and pushes. See the glossary for how we define edge.

Showing: All Time · All Picks

Published picks

The public track for the curated cohort — ROI first, then units, sample, and average odds. Methodology is locked. The sample is still building.

MLB + NFL · All Time

ROI
-2.9%
flat 1u · pushes excluded
Units
-22.69u
profit / loss at recorded odds
Sample
775
775 decided
Avg odds
+114
mean price, shown American

Record (secondary)365–410W–L

Not a marketed winning record. This is a working track of the locked filters while the sample fills in.

What counts as a published pick

The Published card is a subset of the graded archive. A pick is included only when every rule below is true.

  • Graded — won, lost, or push. Pending rows are excluded from ROI.
  • Not a juice trap — counting-stat UNDER with a line of 0.5 or lower is dropped.
  • Odds band — American −200 to +250 after an honest American/decimal parse.
  • Line-shop edge > 0 — same edge field stored when the prop was saved.
  • Quality ≥ 40
  • MLB and NFL only — NHL stays in the full archive for now.
  • Player props only — moneylines and game totals have their own track below.

Units and ROI assume a flat 1-unit bet at the recorded odds. Pushes count in the sample and are excluded from the ROI denominator.

Sides & totals

Game moneylines and overs/unders with a model edge. Graded from final scores. Not part of the Published props track above.

MLB + NFL · All Time

ROI
-10.9%
flat 1u · pushes excluded
Units
-26.64u
profit / loss at recorded odds
Sample
255
244 decided · 11 push
Avg odds
+116
mean price, shown American

Record (secondary)106–138–11

Full graded archive

Every tracked prop we grade — including juice traps, longshots, NHL, and rows that do not meet the published filters. This is the honest bulk record, not the Published card.

Tracked Predictions
17,218
10,900 won · 6,307 lost · 11 push
Hit Rate
63.3%
10,900 of 17,207 resolved
Avg Edge vs Market
0.7%
avg line difference vs consensus
Units P/L · ROI
-1168.06u(-6.8%)
1-unit flat per pick · pushes excluded

How we grade

Every tracked prop is graded from the official box score once the game is final.

  • Correct — actual stat finished on the predicted side of the line
  • Incorrect — actual stat finished on the opposite side
  • Push — actual stat exactly equals the line (excluded from win-rate math)
  • Needs review — we couldn't resolve the stat from official sources

Hit rate is correct / (correct + incorrect). Pushes are excluded. These rules apply to the full graded archive. The Published card uses the stricter cohort listed above.

NFL

Record

Record1463–1178
Hit Rate55.4%
ROI-5.7%
Units-150.79
NHL

Record

Record2998–1596
Hit Rate65.3%
ROI-3.7%
Units-171.39
MLB

Record

Record6439–3533–11
Hit Rate64.6%
ROI-8.5%
Units-845.88

Record by Prop Type

Showing prop types with at least 25 resolved bets

See how different prop types have performed over time. Use this table to compare hit rate, volume, and results by market — smaller samples can swing more sharply, so larger tracked groups usually tell the clearer story.

Prop TypeRecordHit RateROIUnits
MLB - batter hits
4696–2571(7267)64.6%-8.1%-587.04
NHL - player shots on goal
1248–962(2210)56.5%-7.6%-167.10
MLB - batter total bases
699–474(1173)59.6%-9.3%-109.00
MLB - pitcher strikeouts
739–282(1021)72.4%-10.3%-105.43
NHL - player points
588–373(961)61.2%-3.6%-35.01
NHL - player power play points
853–28(881)96.8%+9.1%+80.23
NFL - player receptions
527–353(880)59.9%-3.5%-30.95
NFL - player reception yds
272–231(503)54.1%-3.1%-15.49
NFL - player rush yds
218–176(394)55.3%-11.3%-44.53
NFL - player pass yds
169–121(290)58.3%-3.2%-9.24
NHL - player assists
149–117(266)56.0%-14.4%-38.20
NFL - player pass tds
125–92(217)57.6%-11.7%-25.42
NHL - player blocked shots
121–96(217)55.8%-3.3%-7.10
MLB - total
66–72–5(143)47.8%-9.6%-13.25
NFL - receptions
46–75(121)38.0%-13.9%-16.82
MLB - moneyline
40–66–6(112)37.7%-12.6%-13.39
MLB - batter singles
52–16(68)76.5%-8.9%-6.08
MLB - batter runs scored
50–18(68)73.5%-10.7%-7.26
MLB - pitcher outs
33–30(63)52.4%-16.8%-10.60
NFL - receiving yards
25–34(59)42.4%-11.8%-6.99
NFL - rushing attemptssmall sample
20–28(48)41.7%-10.9%-5.24
NHL - player goalssmall sample
35–10(45)77.8%+2.5%+1.11
MLB - batter doublessmall sample
39–2(41)95.1%+2.2%+0.92
NFL - rushing yardssmall sample
11–21(32)34.4%-27.9%-8.92

Rows marked “small sample” have between 25 and 49 resolved bets. Hit rate and ROI for these will fluctuate as we collect more data.

Status

Completed17,218
Pending
148(31 MLB, 50 NHL, 67 NFL)
Needs Review141
Manually Closed646
Total Tracked18,153

Source Tracking

Historical visitor saves152
Historical parlay legs169
Auto-Generated17575
Visitor saves now live in the browser only. Historical counts above are leftover archive rows and will not grow.

Recent archive rows

Bulk tracked props. Not filtered to Published picks.

Bryan Rust· player shots on goalcorrect
OVER 1.5 · Actual: 3.00
Win Prob: 57.0%Quality: 40.5system generated
Evan Bouchard· player assistscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 1.00
Win Prob: 57.1%Quality: 40.5system generated
Leon Draisaitl· player assistscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 4.00
Win Prob: 57.0%Quality: 40.5system generated
Yegor Chinakhov· player shots on goalNeeds Review
OVER 1.50
Win Prob: 59.3%Quality: 41.6system generated
Pavel Mintyukov· player shots on goalincorrect
UNDER 1.5 · Actual: 2.00
Win Prob: 59.5%Quality: 41.8system generated
Tom Wilson· player shots on goalcorrect
OVER 1.5 · Actual: 2.00
Win Prob: 61.0%Quality: 42.5system generated
Cutter Gauthier· player pointsincorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 0.00
Win Prob: 62.5%Quality: 43.2system generated
Jackson LaCombe· player pointscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 1.00
Win Prob: 55.2%Quality: 43.6system generated
Alex Tuch· player pointscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 1.00
Win Prob: 55.4%Quality: 43.7system generated
Cole Perfetti· player shots on goalcorrect
OVER 1.5 · Actual: 2.00
Win Prob: 63.6%Quality: 43.8system generated
Vasily Podkolzin· player pointscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 1.00
Win Prob: 55.6%Quality: 43.8system generated
Nathan MacKinnon· player pointscorrect
UNDER 1.5 · Actual: 0.00
Win Prob: 55.7%Quality: 43.8system generated
Kasperi Kapanen· player shots on goalcorrect
OVER 1.5 · Actual: 3.00
Win Prob: 55.7%Quality: 43.9system generated
Dylan Strome· player pointscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 1.00
Win Prob: 55.7%Quality: 43.9system generated
Leon Draisaitl· player pointsincorrect
UNDER 1.5 · Actual: 4.00
Win Prob: 56.2%Quality: 44.1system generated
Martin Necas· player pointscorrect
UNDER 1.5 · Actual: 0.00
Win Prob: 64.2%Quality: 44.1system generated
Vasily Podkolzin· player shots on goalcorrect
OVER 1.5 · Actual: 3.00
Win Prob: 64.1%Quality: 44.1system generated
Connor McDavid· player assistscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 2.00
Win Prob: 64.5%Quality: 44.2system generated
Beckett Sennecke· player pointscorrect
OVER 0.5 · Actual: 2.00
Win Prob: 56.9%Quality: 44.4system generated
Jackson LaCombe· player shots on goalincorrect
OVER 1.5 · Actual: 0.00
Win Prob: 57.0%Quality: 44.5system generated

Full graded archive

Bulk graded props — not the Published picks card.

48 total
NHLWIN
Bryan Rust
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
3.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Evan Bouchard
player assists
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Leon Draisaitl
player assists
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
4.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Pavel Mintyukov
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 1.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 60%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Tom Wilson
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 61%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Cutter Gauthier
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 62%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Jackson LaCombe
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 55%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Alex Tuch
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 55%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Cole Perfetti
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 64%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Vasily Podkolzin
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 56%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Nathan MacKinnon
player points
Prediction
UNDER 1.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 56%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Kasperi Kapanen
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
3.0
Win: 56%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Dylan Strome
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 56%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Leon Draisaitl
player points
Prediction
UNDER 1.5
Actual
4.0
Win: 56%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Martin Necas
player points
Prediction
UNDER 1.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 64%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Vasily Podkolzin
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
3.0
Win: 64%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Connor McDavid
player assists
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 64%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Beckett Sennecke
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Jackson LaCombe
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Evgeni Malkin
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 58%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Jordan Kyrou
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 58%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Ben Kindel
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 58%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Brock Nelson
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 58%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Leon Draisaitl
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 2.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 58%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Mark Scheifele
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 59%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Josh Morrissey
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 59%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Leo Carlsson
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 60%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Sidney Crosby
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 60%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Gabriel Landeskog
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
3.0
Win: 60%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Tom Wilson
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 60%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Mark Scheifele
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 61%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Kyle Connor
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 62%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Cale Makar
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 64%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Leo Carlsson
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 55%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Evan Bouchard
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
3.0
Win: 65%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Rickard Rakell
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
3.0
Win: 56%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Alex Tuch
player shots on goal
Prediction
OVER 1.5
Actual
6.0
Win: 65%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Connor McDavid
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 3.5
Actual
1.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Nazem Kadri
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
4.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Evan Bouchard
player points
Prediction
UNDER 1.5
Actual
3.0
Win: 66%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Kyle Connor
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 3.5
Actual
4.0
Win: 57%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Martin Necas
player points
Prediction
OVER 0.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 67%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Leon Draisaitl
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 3.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 58%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Cutter Gauthier
player points
Prediction
UNDER 1.5
Actual
0.0
Win: 67%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Sidney Crosby
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 58%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Erik Karlsson
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
4.0
Win: 59%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLWIN
Cole Perfetti
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
2.0
Win: 60%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7
NHLLOSS
Beckett Sennecke
player shots on goal
Prediction
UNDER 2.5
Actual
7.0
Win: 60%Edge: +0.0%
Oct 7