Published picks & full record
The Published card is the curated public track (ROI first). Everything below it is the full graded archive — bulk tracked props, not the brand picks. After each game we pull the box score and grade wins, losses, and pushes. See the glossary for how we define edge.
Showing: All Time · All Picks
Published picks
The public track for the curated cohort — ROI first, then units, sample, and average odds. Methodology is locked. The sample is still building.
MLB + NFL · All Time
Record (secondary)365–410W–L
Not a marketed winning record. This is a working track of the locked filters while the sample fills in.
What counts as a published pick
The Published card is a subset of the graded archive. A pick is included only when every rule below is true.
- Graded — won, lost, or push. Pending rows are excluded from ROI.
- Not a juice trap — counting-stat UNDER with a line of 0.5 or lower is dropped.
- Odds band — American −200 to +250 after an honest American/decimal parse.
- Line-shop edge > 0 — same edge field stored when the prop was saved.
- Quality ≥ 40
- MLB and NFL only — NHL stays in the full archive for now.
- Player props only — moneylines and game totals have their own track below.
Units and ROI assume a flat 1-unit bet at the recorded odds. Pushes count in the sample and are excluded from the ROI denominator.
Sides & totals
Game moneylines and overs/unders with a model edge. Graded from final scores. Not part of the Published props track above.
MLB + NFL · All Time
Record (secondary)106–138–11
Full graded archive
Every tracked prop we grade — including juice traps, longshots, NHL, and rows that do not meet the published filters. This is the honest bulk record, not the Published card.
How we grade
Every tracked prop is graded from the official box score once the game is final.
- Correct — actual stat finished on the predicted side of the line
- Incorrect — actual stat finished on the opposite side
- Push — actual stat exactly equals the line (excluded from win-rate math)
- Needs review — we couldn't resolve the stat from official sources
Hit rate is correct / (correct + incorrect). Pushes are excluded. These rules apply to the full graded archive. The Published card uses the stricter cohort listed above.
Record
Record
Record
Record by Prop Type
Showing prop types with at least 25 resolved betsSee how different prop types have performed over time. Use this table to compare hit rate, volume, and results by market — smaller samples can swing more sharply, so larger tracked groups usually tell the clearer story.
| Prop Type | Record | Hit Rate | ROI | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MLB - batter hits | 4696–2571(7267) | 64.6% | -8.1% | -587.04 |
NHL - player shots on goal | 1248–962(2210) | 56.5% | -7.6% | -167.10 |
MLB - batter total bases | 699–474(1173) | 59.6% | -9.3% | -109.00 |
MLB - pitcher strikeouts | 739–282(1021) | 72.4% | -10.3% | -105.43 |
NHL - player points | 588–373(961) | 61.2% | -3.6% | -35.01 |
NHL - player power play points | 853–28(881) | 96.8% | +9.1% | +80.23 |
NFL - player receptions | 527–353(880) | 59.9% | -3.5% | -30.95 |
NFL - player reception yds | 272–231(503) | 54.1% | -3.1% | -15.49 |
NFL - player rush yds | 218–176(394) | 55.3% | -11.3% | -44.53 |
NFL - player pass yds | 169–121(290) | 58.3% | -3.2% | -9.24 |
NHL - player assists | 149–117(266) | 56.0% | -14.4% | -38.20 |
NFL - player pass tds | 125–92(217) | 57.6% | -11.7% | -25.42 |
NHL - player blocked shots | 121–96(217) | 55.8% | -3.3% | -7.10 |
MLB - total | 66–72–5(143) | 47.8% | -9.6% | -13.25 |
NFL - receptions | 46–75(121) | 38.0% | -13.9% | -16.82 |
MLB - moneyline | 40–66–6(112) | 37.7% | -12.6% | -13.39 |
MLB - batter singles | 52–16(68) | 76.5% | -8.9% | -6.08 |
MLB - batter runs scored | 50–18(68) | 73.5% | -10.7% | -7.26 |
MLB - pitcher outs | 33–30(63) | 52.4% | -16.8% | -10.60 |
NFL - receiving yards | 25–34(59) | 42.4% | -11.8% | -6.99 |
NFL - rushing attemptssmall sample | 20–28(48) | 41.7% | -10.9% | -5.24 |
NHL - player goalssmall sample | 35–10(45) | 77.8% | +2.5% | +1.11 |
MLB - batter doublessmall sample | 39–2(41) | 95.1% | +2.2% | +0.92 |
NFL - rushing yardssmall sample | 11–21(32) | 34.4% | -27.9% | -8.92 |
Rows marked “small sample” have between 25 and 49 resolved bets. Hit rate and ROI for these will fluctuate as we collect more data.
Status
Source Tracking
Recent archive rows
Bulk tracked props. Not filtered to Published picks.
Full graded archive
Bulk graded props — not the Published picks card.
| Sport | Result | Player & Prop | Prediction | Actual | Metrics | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | WIN | Bryan Rust player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 3.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 41 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Evan Bouchard player assists | OVER 0.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 41 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Leon Draisaitl player assists | OVER 0.5 0 | 4.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 41 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Pavel Mintyukov player shots on goal | UNDER 1.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 60% Edge: +0.0% Q: 42 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Tom Wilson player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 61% Edge: +0.0% Q: 43 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Cutter Gauthier player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 62% Edge: +0.0% Q: 43 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Jackson LaCombe player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 55% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Alex Tuch player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 55% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Cole Perfetti player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 64% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Vasily Podkolzin player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 56% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Nathan MacKinnon player points | UNDER 1.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 56% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Kasperi Kapanen player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 3.0 | Win: 56% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Dylan Strome player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 56% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Leon Draisaitl player points | UNDER 1.5 0 | 4.0 | Win: 56% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Martin Necas player points | UNDER 1.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 64% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Vasily Podkolzin player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 3.0 | Win: 64% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Connor McDavid player assists | OVER 0.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 64% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Beckett Sennecke player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 44 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Jackson LaCombe player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 45 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Evgeni Malkin player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 58% Edge: +0.0% Q: 45 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Jordan Kyrou player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 58% Edge: +0.0% Q: 45 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Ben Kindel player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 58% Edge: +0.0% Q: 45 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Brock Nelson player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 58% Edge: +0.0% Q: 45 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Leon Draisaitl player shots on goal | OVER 2.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 58% Edge: +0.0% Q: 45 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Mark Scheifele player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 59% Edge: +0.0% Q: 46 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Josh Morrissey player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 59% Edge: +0.0% Q: 46 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Leo Carlsson player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 60% Edge: +0.0% Q: 46 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Sidney Crosby player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 60% Edge: +0.0% Q: 46 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Gabriel Landeskog player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 3.0 | Win: 60% Edge: +0.0% Q: 46 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Tom Wilson player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 60% Edge: +0.0% Q: 46 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Mark Scheifele player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 61% Edge: +0.0% Q: 47 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Kyle Connor player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 62% Edge: +0.0% Q: 47 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Cale Makar player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 64% Edge: +0.0% Q: 48 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Leo Carlsson player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 55% Edge: +0.0% Q: 48 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Evan Bouchard player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 3.0 | Win: 65% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Rickard Rakell player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 3.0 | Win: 56% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Alex Tuch player shots on goal | OVER 1.5 0 | 6.0 | Win: 65% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Connor McDavid player shots on goal | UNDER 3.5 0 | 1.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Nazem Kadri player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 4.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Evan Bouchard player points | UNDER 1.5 0 | 3.0 | Win: 66% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Kyle Connor player shots on goal | UNDER 3.5 0 | 4.0 | Win: 57% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Martin Necas player points | OVER 0.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 67% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Leon Draisaitl player shots on goal | UNDER 3.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 58% Edge: +0.0% Q: 49 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Cutter Gauthier player points | UNDER 1.5 0 | 0.0 | Win: 67% Edge: +0.0% Q: 50 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Sidney Crosby player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 58% Edge: +0.0% Q: 50 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Erik Karlsson player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 4.0 | Win: 59% Edge: +0.0% Q: 50 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | WIN | Cole Perfetti player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 2.0 | Win: 60% Edge: +0.0% Q: 50 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |
| NHL | LOSS | Beckett Sennecke player shots on goal | UNDER 2.5 0 | 7.0 | Win: 60% Edge: +0.0% Q: 50 | Auto | Oct 7 12:20 PM |