Implied Probability
The break-even win rate embedded in the odds. American odds of -110 imply ~52.4% — you need to win more than that to profit long-term.
Every posted price encodes a required win rate. American odds of -110 imply about 52.4%. That is the break-even point after the book takes its cut — you need to be right more often than that just to get back to even over time.
We convert every book's number to implied probability so you can compare prices on the same scale. +150 implies 40%. If you think the real chance is higher than the number on the board, the price is theoretically better than break-even. That is a statement about the posted odds, not a forecast from a hidden model.
Implied probability still includes vig until we strip it. Edge and win probability on this site are computed after that step, so they are not the same as one book's raw conversion.
Example
+150 odds imply 40% probability. If the true chance is 50%, that's a value bet.