Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT

MLB

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins

CHC @ MIA

Scheduled

Moneyline

CHC

56%

44%

MIA

-141+115

ML Edge

CHC+2.0%

MIA-2.0%

Total (O/U)

8.0

Fanatics

Over+5.4%

Under-5.4%

Venue

Park Factor

0.92

Pitcher-friendly

Away Starter

Team:Chicago Cubs (CHC)

Pitcher:Javier Assad(RHP)

Record:6-1

ERA:3.46

Home Starter

Team:Miami Marlins (MIA)

Pitcher:Ryan Gusto(RHP)

Record:1-3

ERA:3.86

Betting Insights

Key takeaways for this matchup

The Under has a 5.4% edge.

Top prop: Javier Assad UNDER 3.5 pitcher strikeouts (53% win prob).

Pitching matchup: Javier Assad (3.46 ERA) vs Ryan Gusto (3.86 ERA).

Player Props

50 props available for this game

Batting Props 44

Player	Prop	Line	Odds	Win %	Quality
Nico Hoerner	OVER hits	0.5	-227	67%	53.3
Pete Crow-Armstrong	UNDER hits	1.5	-233	67%	53.3
Otto Lopez	OVER hits	0.5	-208	66%	53.1
Pete Crow-Armstrong	OVER hits	0.5	-263	69%	50.6
Nico Hoerner	UNDER hits	1.5	-278	69%	50.5
Javier Sanoja	OVER hits	0.5	-164	63%	50.2
Pedro Ramirez	OVER total bases	1.5	+180	38%	49.1
Pete Crow-Armstrong	OVER stolen bases	0.5	+400	22%	48.4
Alex Bregman	OVER hits	0.5	-189	64%	48.2
Seiya Suzuki	OVER hits	0.5	-200	64%	48.1
Pedro Ramirez	OVER hits	0.5	-189	64%	47.8
Michael Busch	OVER hits	0.5	-179	63%	47.6
Javier Sanoja	UNDER total bases	1.5	-185	62%	46.8
Nico Hoerner	UNDER total bases	1.5	-182	62%	46.8
Heriberto Hernandez	OVER hits	0.5	-175	61%	46.7

Pitching Props 6

Player	Prop	Line	Odds	Win %	Quality
Javier Assad	UNDER strikeouts	3.5	+100	53%	54.2
Ryan Gusto	OVER strikeouts	3.5	-132	56%	43.9
Javier Assad	OVER outs	13.5	-175	61%	42.4
Ryan Gusto	UNDER walks	1.5	-179	60%	42.2
Javier Assad	OVER outs	14.5	-125	52%	42.1
Ryan Gusto	UNDER outs	14.5	-123	52%	42.1

Pitcher Matchup Analysis

Platoon splits, recent form, and times through the order

ESPN Win Probability

CHC

MIA

57.2%42.8%

Javier Assad (CHC)

2026 season

Split	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	AVG	IP
Overall	3.46	1.11	6.0	2.3	.233	83.1
Home	1.95	0.86	4.9	1.9	.188	37.0
Away	4.66	1.30	6.8	2.5	.266	46.1
Last 30 Days	2.25	0.63	4.5	1.1	.148	8.0

Opponent Batting by Handedness

Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
vs LHB	.263	.322	.513	.834	160	33
vs RHB	.200	.250	.283	.533	145	22

Times Through Order

Time	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
1st Time	.202	.270	.313	.583	163	35
2nd Time	.248	.298	.540	.837	113	17
3rd Time	.345	.355	.379	.734	29	3

Ryan Gusto (MIA)

2026 season

Split	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	AVG	IP
Overall	3.86	1.34	7.6	2.7	.256	67.2
Home	3.31	1.25	7.2	3.1	.235	35.1
Away	4.45	1.43	8.1	2.2	.277	32.1
Last 7 Days	2.08	1.46	8.8	4.4	.250	4.1
Last 30 Days	1.99	1.31	7.3	2.8	.242	22.2

Opponent Batting by Handedness

Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
vs LHB	.244	.314	.385	.699	156	29
vs RHB	.274	.317	.436	.753	117	28

Times Through Order

Time	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
1st Time	.204	.264	.333	.597	147	39
2nd Time	.310	.364	.430	.794	100	16
3rd Time	.346	.414	.731	1.145	26	2

Last 5 Games

MIA: L W W L L

CHC: W L L W W

Season Series

This Series (3 games)

CHC lead series 1-0

Weather

89°F

Condition: 4

Recent Odds

Latest betting lines from various books

Moneyline

Book	Away	Home	Time
Fanatics	-141	+115	12:28 PM
BetUS	-135	+122	12:28 PM
BetOnline.ag	-135	+122	12:28 PM
LowVig.ag	-135	+122	12:28 PM
BetRivers	-139	+116	12:28 PM

Totals

Book	Total	Over	Under	Time
Fanatics	8.0	-105	-115	12:28 PM
BetUS	8.0	-105	-115	12:28 PM
BetOnline.ag	8.0	-105	-115	12:28 PM
LowVig.ag	8.0	-102	-114	12:28 PM
BetRivers	8.0	-120	-118	12:28 PM