Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT

MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

ARI @ KC

Scheduled

Moneyline

ARI

53%

47%

-123+106

ML Edge

ARI+3.0%

KC-3.0%

Total (O/U)

9.5

BetRivers

Over-15.1%

Under+15.1%

Venue

Park Factor

1.00

Neutral

Away Starter

Team:Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI)

Pitcher:Merrill Kelly(RHP)

Record:9-13

ERA:5.06

Home Starter

Team:Kansas City Royals (KC)

Pitcher:Daniel Lynch IV(RHP)

Record:4-5

ERA:3.51

Betting Insights

Key takeaways for this matchup

The Under has a 15.1% edge.

Top prop: Corbin Burnes UNDER 4.5 pitcher strikeouts (77% win prob).

Pitching matchup: Merrill Kelly (5.06 ERA) vs Daniel Lynch IV (3.51 ERA).

Player Props

50 props available for this game

Batting Props 41

Player	Prop	Line	Odds	Win %	Quality
Bobby Witt Jr.	OVER hits	0.5	-417	77%	54.5
Ketel Marte	OVER hits	0.5	-256	68%	54.2
Corbin Carroll	OVER hits	0.5	-244	67%	53.7
Gabriel Moreno	UNDER hits	1.5	-244	67%	53.6
Geraldo Perdomo	OVER hits	0.5	-238	67%	53.6
Lars Nootbaar	OVER hits	0.5	-233	67%	53.3
Carter Jensen	OVER hits	0.5	-227	66%	52.9
Nolan Arenado	OVER hits	0.5	-222	66%	52.8
Vinnie Pasquantino	OVER hits	0.5	-222	66%	52.8
Salvador Perez	OVER hits	0.5	-222	65%	52.6
Gabriel Moreno	OVER hits	0.5	-303	72%	51.9
Bobby Witt Jr.	UNDER hits	1.5	-227	66%	49.2
Ildemaro Vargas	OVER hits	0.5	-233	66%	48.8
Michael Massey	OVER hits	0.5	-189	63%	47.6
Nick Loftin	OVER hits	0.5	-196	63%	47.5

Pitching Props 9

Player	Prop	Line	Odds	Win %	Quality
Corbin Burnes	UNDER strikeouts	4.5	-476	77%	54.6
Michael Wacha	UNDER strikeouts	5.5	-435	76%	54.0
Corbin Burnes	UNDER walks	1.5	-244	67%	49.3
Corbin Burnes	OVER strikeouts	2.5	-175	61%	46.6
Corbin Burnes	UNDER strikeouts	3.5	-167	60%	46.0
Michael Wacha	UNDER strikeouts	4.5	-164	59%	45.3
Corbin Burnes	OVER outs	11.5	-143	56%	43.9
Michael Wacha	OVER strikeouts	3.5	-164	60%	41.8
Michael Wacha	OVER outs	17.5	-108	52%	41.8

Pitcher Matchup Analysis

Platoon splits, recent form, and times through the order

ESPN Win Probability

ARI

45.7%54.3%

Merrill Kelly (ARI)

2026 season

Split	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	AVG	IP
Overall	5.06	1.47	6.1	3.9	.271	147.2
Home	6.10	1.58	6.9	3.8	.287	59.0
Away	4.36	1.41	5.5	4.0	.259	88.2
Last 7 Days	4.50	1.17	6.0	0.0	.292	6.0
Last 30 Days	5.86	1.51	6.3	4.6	.257	27.2

Opponent Batting by Handedness

Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
vs LHB	.273	.363	.501	.864	337	50
vs RHB	.268	.317	.434	.752	228	49

Times Through Order

Time	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
1st Time	.302	.357	.514	.872	212	36
2nd Time	.259	.358	.442	.799	197	36
3rd Time	.243	.311	.461	.772	152	26

Daniel Lynch IV (KC)

2026 season

Split	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	AVG	IP
Overall	3.51	1.10	6.3	2.7	.212	66.2
Home	3.18	1.05	5.3	3.0	.194	39.2
Away	4.00	1.19	7.7	2.3	.236	27.0
Last 7 Days	9.00	1.60	0.0	1.8	.318	5.0
Last 30 Days	6.16	1.32	4.3	2.8	.257	19.0

Opponent Batting by Handedness

Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
vs LHB	.168	.222	.238	.460	101	21
vs RHB	.242	.313	.409	.723	149	25

Times Through Order

Time	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	K
1st Time	.219	.287	.344	.631	215	42
2nd Time	.207	.258	.379	.637	29	4
3rd Time	.000	.000	.000	.000	6	0

Last 5 Games

KC: W L L W L

ARI: W L W W W

Season Series

This Series (3 games)

ARI leads series 1-0

Weather

83°F

Condition: 3

Recent Odds

Latest betting lines from various books

Moneyline

Book	Away	Home	Time
BetRivers	-123	+106	12:31 PM
Bovada	-120	+101	12:31 PM
FanDuel	-120	+102	12:31 PM
BetUS	-114	+103	12:31 PM
BetMGM	-120	+100	12:31 PM

Totals

Book	Total	Over	Under	Time
BetRivers	9.5	-118	+100	12:31 PM
Bovada	9.5	-125	+105	12:31 PM
FanDuel	9.5	-123	+102	12:31 PM
BetUS	9.0	+100	-120	12:31 PM
BetMGM	9.0	+100	-120	12:31 PM